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To study the spreading trend and risk of COVID-19, according to the characteristics of COVID-19, this paper proposes a new transmission dynamic model named SLIR(susceptible-low-risk-infected-recovered), based on the classic SIR model by considering government control and personal protection measures. The equilibria, stability and bifurcation of the model are analyzed to reveal the propagation mechanism of COVID-19. In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the model, the least square method is employed to estimate the model parameters based on the real data of COVID-19 in the United States. Finally, the model is used to predict and analyze COVID-19 in the United States. The simulation results show that compared with the traditional SIR model, this model can better predict the spreading trend of COVID-19 in the United States, and the actual official data has further verified its effectiveness. The proposed model can effectively simulate the spreading of COVID-19 and help governments choose appropriate prevention and control measures. Copyright ©2023 Control and Decision.
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This study investigates whether and how the pandemic is priced in the bond market in China. Using the city-level COVID-19 cases on a daily basis, we find a significant positive relationship between the pandemic outbreak and corporate credit spreads, implying that investor risk perception on pandemic exposure attracts a premium. Consistent with the default risk channel, corporate financial resilience alleviates pandemic pricing. Information asymmetry and tail risk can amplify the pricing effect because of reduced investor risk-bearing capacity. These findings are robust in addressing endogeneity concerns. We contribute to the emerging literature on the pandemic effect on credit markets. © 2023 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.
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Objective: To compare the efficacy of the combination of abidol, lopinavir/ritonavir plus recombinant interferon alpha-2b (rIFNalpha-2b) and the combination of lopinavir/ritonavir plus rIFNalpha-2b for patients with COVID-19 in Zhejiang province. Method(s): A multicenter prospective study was carried out to compare the efficacy of triple combination antiviral therapy and dual combination antiviral therapy in 15 medical institutions of Zhejiang province during January 22 to February 16, 2020. All patients were treated with rIFNalpha-2b (5 million U, 2 times/d) aerosol inhalation, in addition 196 patients were treated with abidol (200 mg, 3 times/d) + lopinavir/ritonavir (2 tablets, 1 time/12 h) (triple combination group) and 41 patients were treated with lopinavir/ritonavir (2 tablets, 1 time/12 h) (dual combination group). The patients who received triple combination antiviral therapy were further divided into three subgroups: <48 h, 3-5 d and >5 d according the time from the symptom onset to medication starting. The therapeutic efficacy was compared between triple combination group and dual combination group, and compared among 3 subgroups of patients receiving triple combination antiviral therapy. SPSS 17.0 software was used to analyze the data. Result(s): The virus nucleic acid-negative conversion time in respiratory tract specimens was (12.2+/-4.7) d in the triple combination group, which was shorter than that in the dual combination group [(15.0+/-5.0) d] (t=6.159, P<0.01). The length of hospital stay in the triple combination group [12.0 (9.0, 17.0) d] was also shorter than that in the dual combination group [15.0 (10.0, 18.0) d] (H=2.073, P<0.05). Compared with the antiviral treatment which was started within after the symptom onset of in the triple combination group, the time from the symptom onset to the viral negative conversion was 13.0 (10.0, 17.0), 17.0 (13.0, 22.0) and 21.0 (18.0, 24.0) d in subgroups of 48 h, 3-5 d and >5 d, respectively (Z=32.983, P<0.01), while the time from antiviral therapy to viral negative conversion was (11.8+/-3.9), (13.5+/-5.1) and (11.2+/-4.3) d, respectively(Z=6.722, P<0.05). Conclusion(s): The triple combination antiviral therapy of abidol, lopinavir/litonavir and rIFNalpha-2b shows shorter viral shedding time and shorter hospitalization time, compared with the dual combination antiviral therapy;and the earlier starting triple combination antiviral therapy will result in better antiviral efficacy.Copyright © 2020 by the Chinese Medical Association.
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Dayuanyin,a representative prescription for the treatment of dampness pathogen lodging in pleurodiaphragmatic interspace syndrome,was first recorded in Treatise on Pestilence(<<>>)by Wu Youke in the Ming Dynasty for dealing with pestilence,and it still plays an important role in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)differentiated into dampness stagnating in lung syndrome. The related original ancient records were retrieved from the Chinese Classics of Traditional Chinese Medicine(Version 5.0),Full-text Database of Ancient Chinese Medicine Books,and Ancient Books of Traditional Chinese Medicine Database (http://www. gydc. ac. cn:81/),with 'Dayuanyin' and 'Dayuansan' as the search terms,followed by statistical analysis and textual research. The composition,dosage,processing of original medicinal materials,efficacy, indications, processing and administration methods, modern basic research, and clinical applications of Dayuanyin were summarized,so as to provide literature reference for its modern development and clinical application. The findings demonstrated that the composition in most medical records was identical with that of the original prescription,except that some records concerning Angelicae Dahuricae Radix and Tsaoko Fructus differed. In terms of dosage,it did not change much,with the only difference observed in Tsaoko Fructus. The processing methods of medicinal materials in Dayuanyin were not specified in historical records,so the raw medicinal materials were recommended. The processing and administration methods in the original record were basically followed in the later generations,except that some medical records chose Zingiberis Rhizoma Recens as the guide and changed the decocting amount and administration time. In terms of efficacy and indications, Dayuanyin was originally developed for dispelling pathogenic Qi away from the pleurodiaphragmatic interspace, but later employed for the treatment of such diseases as 'pestilence','epidemic malaria',and 'seasonal epidemic'. It was mainly indicated to 'epidemic diseases' with latent pathogen in pleurodiaphragmatic interspace as the pathogenesis and fever as the manifestation. In modern clinical application,ancients physicians considered 'fever' and 'powder-like tongue coating' as the important signs for this prescription. Modern physicians have utilized Dayuanyin for treating fever,diseases in the digestive,respiratory,urinary,and endocrine systems,skin diseases,pediatric diseases,as well as epidemic diseases like influenza,severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS),and avian flu due to its good effects.Copyright © 2021, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences Institute of Chinese Materia Medica. All rights reserved.
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The epidemic of COVID-19 has lasted for nearly a year, the number of confirmed cases worldwide is still rising, and the trend of the epidemic is unclear. How will be the further development of COVID-19 epidemic? What is the current status of research on new drugs for coronary virus disease? Will the vaccine currently used change the epidemic pattern? In the context of the normalization of the epidemic, whether the epidemiology of other respiratory viruses will change? This article will discuss and analyze these hot and difficult issues.Copyright © 2021 Chinese Medical Association
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This paper investigates whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affects bank funding costs in China. We find a significantly positive relationship between the offering yield spreads of negotiable certificates of deposit and banks' pandemic exposure. The surge in bank funding costs is alleviated by banks' asset quality, financial flexibility, operational resilience, and government support, indicating that pandemic-induced risks are priced in the interbank market. The alternative explanations of monetary policy interventions, investors' flight-to-liquidity effect, bank liquidity hoarding, and banks' mispricing are further excluded. We contribute to the literature on the pandemic effects on financial markets, and bank funding during crises. © 2023 Elsevier B.V.
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Sentiment classification is a valid measure to monitor public opinion on the COVID-19 epidemic. This study provides a significant basis for preventing the spread of adverse public opinion. Firstly, in epidemic texts, we use a convolutional neural network and bidirectional long short-term memory neural network BiLSTM model to classify and analyze the sentiment of the comment texts about the epidemic situation on Weibo. Secondly, embedded in the model layer to generate adversarial samples and extract semantics. Then, semantic information is weighted using the attention mechanism. Finally, the RMS optimizer is used to update the neural network weights iteratively. According to comparative experiments, the experimental results show that such four evaluation metrics as accuracy, precision, recall, and f1-score with our proposed model have obtained better classification performance. © 2022 IEEE.
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The epidemic of COVID-19 has lasted for nearly a year, the number of confirmed cases worldwide is still rising, and the trend of the epidemic is unclear. How will be the further development of COVID-19 epidemic? What is the current status of research on new drugs for coronary virus disease? Will the vaccine currently used change the epidemic pattern? In the context of the normalization of the epidemic, whether the epidemiology of other respiratory viruses will change? This article will discuss and analyze these hot and difficult issues.Copyright © 2021 Chinese Medical Association
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Water clarity is a key parameter for assessing changes of aquatic environment. Coastal waters are complex and variable, remote sensing of water clarity for it is often limited by low spatial resolution. The Sentinel-2 Multi-Spectral Instrument (MSI) imagery with a resolution of up to 10 m are employed to solve the problem from 2017 to 2021. Distribution and characteristics of Secchi disk depth (SDD) in Jiaozhou Bay (JZB) are analyzed. Subtle changes in localized small areas are discovered, and main factors affecting the changes are explored. Among natural factors, precipitation and wind play dominant roles in variation in SDD. Human activities have a significant influence on transparency, among which fishery farming has the greatest impact. This is clearly evidenced by the significant improvement of SDD in JZB due to the sharp decrease in human activities caused by coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).Copyright © 2022 The Authors
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Objective: To compare the efficacy of the combination of abidol, lopinavir/ritonavir plus recombinant interferon alpha-2b (rIFNalpha-2b) and the combination of lopinavir/ritonavir plus rIFNalpha-2b for patients with COVID-19 in Zhejiang province. Method(s): A multicenter prospective study was carried out to compare the efficacy of triple combination antiviral therapy and dual combination antiviral therapy in 15 medical institutions of Zhejiang province during January 22 to February 16, 2020. All patients were treated with rIFNalpha-2b (5 million U, 2 times/d) aerosol inhalation, in addition 196 patients were treated with abidol (200 mg, 3 times/d) + lopinavir/ritonavir (2 tablets, 1 time/12 h) (triple combination group) and 41 patients were treated with lopinavir/ritonavir (2 tablets, 1 time/12 h) (dual combination group). The patients who received triple combination antiviral therapy were further divided into three subgroups: <48 h, 3-5 d and >5 d according the time from the symptom onset to medication starting. The therapeutic efficacy was compared between triple combination group and dual combination group, and compared among 3 subgroups of patients receiving triple combination antiviral therapy. SPSS 17.0 software was used to analyze the data. Result(s): The virus nucleic acid-negative conversion time in respiratory tract specimens was (12.2+/-4.7) d in the triple combination group, which was shorter than that in the dual combination group [(15.0+/-5.0) d] (t=6.159, P<0.01). The length of hospital stay in the triple combination group [12.0 (9.0, 17.0) d] was also shorter than that in the dual combination group [15.0 (10.0, 18.0) d] (H=2.073, P<0.05). Compared with the antiviral treatment which was started within after the symptom onset of in the triple combination group, the time from the symptom onset to the viral negative conversion was 13.0 (10.0, 17.0), 17.0 (13.0, 22.0) and 21.0 (18.0, 24.0) d in subgroups of 48 h, 3-5 d and >5 d, respectively (Z=32.983, P<0.01), while the time from antiviral therapy to viral negative conversion was (11.8+/-3.9), (13.5+/-5.1) and (11.2+/-4.3) d, respectively(Z=6.722, P<0.05). Conclusion(s): The triple combination antiviral therapy of abidol, lopinavir/litonavir and rIFNalpha-2b shows shorter viral shedding time and shorter hospitalization time, compared with the dual combination antiviral therapy;and the earlier starting triple combination antiviral therapy will result in better antiviral efficacy.Copyright © 2020 by the Chinese Medical Association.
ABSTRACT
Dayuanyin,a representative prescription for the treatment of dampness pathogen lodging in pleurodiaphragmatic interspace syndrome,was first recorded in Treatise on Pestilence(<<>>)by Wu Youke in the Ming Dynasty for dealing with pestilence,and it still plays an important role in the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)differentiated into dampness stagnating in lung syndrome. The related original ancient records were retrieved from the Chinese Classics of Traditional Chinese Medicine(Version 5.0),Full-text Database of Ancient Chinese Medicine Books,and Ancient Books of Traditional Chinese Medicine Database (http://www. gydc. ac. cn:81/),with 'Dayuanyin' and 'Dayuansan' as the search terms,followed by statistical analysis and textual research. The composition,dosage,processing of original medicinal materials,efficacy, indications, processing and administration methods, modern basic research, and clinical applications of Dayuanyin were summarized,so as to provide literature reference for its modern development and clinical application. The findings demonstrated that the composition in most medical records was identical with that of the original prescription,except that some records concerning Angelicae Dahuricae Radix and Tsaoko Fructus differed. In terms of dosage,it did not change much,with the only difference observed in Tsaoko Fructus. The processing methods of medicinal materials in Dayuanyin were not specified in historical records,so the raw medicinal materials were recommended. The processing and administration methods in the original record were basically followed in the later generations,except that some medical records chose Zingiberis Rhizoma Recens as the guide and changed the decocting amount and administration time. In terms of efficacy and indications, Dayuanyin was originally developed for dispelling pathogenic Qi away from the pleurodiaphragmatic interspace, but later employed for the treatment of such diseases as 'pestilence','epidemic malaria',and 'seasonal epidemic'. It was mainly indicated to 'epidemic diseases' with latent pathogen in pleurodiaphragmatic interspace as the pathogenesis and fever as the manifestation. In modern clinical application,ancients physicians considered 'fever' and 'powder-like tongue coating' as the important signs for this prescription. Modern physicians have utilized Dayuanyin for treating fever,diseases in the digestive,respiratory,urinary,and endocrine systems,skin diseases,pediatric diseases,as well as epidemic diseases like influenza,severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS),and avian flu due to its good effects.Copyright © 2021, China Academy of Chinese Medical Sciences Institute of Chinese Materia Medica. All rights reserved.
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Purpose: Given the scarcity of data during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, the decision-making for non-pharmaceutical policies was mostly based on insufficient evidence. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of these policies, such as lockdown and government subsidies, on rural households and identify policy implications for China and other countries in dealing with pandemics. Design/methodology/approach: The authors survey 2,408 rural households by telephone from 101 counties across 17 provinces in China during the first stage of the pandemic (March 2020). The authors use the ordered probit model and linear regression model to study the overall impact of policies and then use the quantile regression model and sub-sample regression method to study the heterogeneity of the effects of government policies. Findings: The authors find that logistics disruption due to lockdown negatively affected rural households. Obstructed logistics is associated with a more significant loss for high-income households, while its impact on the loss expectation of low-income households is more severe. Breeding and other industries such as transport and sales suffer more from logistics than cultivation. The impact of logistics on intensive agricultural entities is more serious than that on professional farms. The government subsidy is more effective at reducing loss for low-income households. Lockdown and government subsidies have shown heterogeneous impacts on rural households. Practical implications: The overall economic losses experienced by rural households in the early stages of the pandemic are controllable. The government policies of logistics and subsidies should target specific groups. Originality/value: The authors evaluate the economic impacts of lockdown and government subsidies on rural households and show their heterogeneity among different groups. The authors further demonstrate the policy effectiveness in supporting rural households during the early stages of the pandemic and provide future policy guidance on major public health event. © 2022, Emerald Publishing Limited.
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2022 is already the third year of the COVID-19 outbreak, and public opinion information about the outbreak has always been at the forefront of hot searches. The imbalance problem prevalent in many reviews of COVID-19 causes classification models to favor most categories in training and prediction process, resulting in low accuracy of small sample classification data generated by imbalanced data sets. Therefore, it is suggested here that the text classification model is based on the combination of the KMeansSMOTE method combined with DeBERT. First of all, during data processing, the KmeansSMOTE algorithm is utilized to oversample the imbalance of the COVID dataset, which increases the classification accuracy of the model. Besides, we put a stacked denoising bidirectional transformer encoder (DeBERT) to use, a more and richer hidden feature vector is extracted by adding an embedded layer after the input tag, and the noise data is reconstructed to solve the noise problem in the process of raw data existence and oversampling. Furthermore, on the basis of model training, overfitting can be alleviated by adopting an early stopping strategy. A world of experiments using the COVID dataset demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method for solving simple imbalance and noise problems. With an overall accuracy of 87%, which improves the classification effect of minority samples and provides a new feasible method for the war of epidemic prevention. © 2022 IEEE.
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Aviation is a significant field, especially in Hong Kong with Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) being one of the largest global transportation hubs. However, in the past years, the COVID-19 pandemic struck and significantly influenced the entire industry. As a result, the HKIA put forth an automation program with an emphasis on safety and efficiency. This paper, therefore, explores the specific process of boarding within the air traveling process due to its high susceptibility to health safety risks, utilizing the methodology of building an agent-based mathematical model and running computer simulations to find the optimal boarding strategy to be applied by Low-Cost Carriers in HKIA under the New Normal to practically achieve efficiency and safety. Throughout modeling, factors such as luggage and carry-ons, walking, seat interference, and disobedience are considered. The proportion of carry-ons stowed and luggage is also considered in further sensitivity analyses. The model is also applicable in the reverse process of disembarking a plane and under special circumstances of COVID-19 capacity limitations. The optimal method of boarding was to be found as the Maximized Corridor Usage (MCU) method. However, the practicality of a boarding method is also a large concern. Hence, the paper also incorporated a practicality factor, considering the simplicity and organization of various boarding methods, and finally concluding the MCU+2 method which boards the passengers in the window and middle seats before aisle seats as the most practically efficient and safe boarding method. © 2022 IEEE.
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Traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) has been applied to the treatment of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19). In the epidemic, COVID-19 patients were treated through integrated TCM and Western medicine. The effect was remarkable, especially in the treatment of mild COVID-19 cases. This paper introduces several TCM treatments to COVID-19, put forward by both domestic and foreign scholars. © 2020 Chinese Medicine and Culture. All rights reserved.
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The COVID-19 outbreak has seen the widespread use of personal protective equipment, especially antibacterial fibers. In this work, ionic liquid (IL) is used as a solvent to fabricate antibacterial fibers combining plant essential oils (PEOs) with cellulose. PEOs are buried in microcapsules first or mixed directly with IL-cellulose spinning dopes to prepare a series of composite fibers. The internal structures, surface and cross morphologies, thermal stability, mechanical properties, antibacterial activity, washing stability, and biocompatibility of these fibers are investigated and analyzed in-depth further. Artemisia microcapsule fiber (AMCRCF) with a break strength of 30.07 MPa is obtained. Besides, the antibacterial activity rates of AMC-RCF against Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus are 89.8 and 97.8%, and the fibers still have a long-lasting antibacterial effect after 30 standard washes. Furthermore, the antibacterial fibers exhibit excellent biocompatibility. This research provides a green approach for the fabrication of the antibacterial fibers with long-lasting antibacterial activity and good biocompatibility.
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Purpose Given the scarcity of data during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in China, the decision-making for non-pharmaceutical policies was mostly based on insufficient evidence. The purpose of this study is to assess the effectiveness of these policies, such as lockdown and government subsidies, on rural households and identify policy implications for China and other countries in dealing with pandemics. Design/methodology/approach The authors survey 2,408 rural households by telephone from 101 counties across 17 provinces in China during the first stage of the pandemic (March 2020). The authors use the ordered probit model and linear regression model to study the overall impact of policies and then use the quantile regression model and sub-sample regression method to study the heterogeneity of the effects of government policies. Findings The authors find that logistics disruption due to lockdown negatively affected rural households. Obstructed logistics is associated with a more significant loss for high-income households, while its impact on the loss expectation of low-income households is more severe. Breeding and other industries such as transport and sales suffer more from logistics than cultivation. The impact of logistics on intensive agricultural entities is more serious than that on professional farms. The government subsidy is more effective at reducing loss for low-income households. Lockdown and government subsidies have shown heterogeneous impacts on rural households. Practical implications The overall economic losses experienced by rural households in the early stages of the pandemic are controllable. The government policies of logistics and subsidies should target specific groups. Originality/value The authors evaluate the economic impacts of lockdown and government subsidies on rural households and show their heterogeneity among different groups. The authors further demonstrate the policy effectiveness in supporting rural households during the early stages of the pandemic and provide future policy guidance on major public health event.
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Objective To analyze the molecular epidemiological characteristics of the Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID‑19) cases in Shijiazhuang, which can reveal the origin of the outbreak and provide a scientific basis for COVID‑19 prevention and control. Methods From January 2 to January 8, 2021, a total of 404 samples from 170 COVID‑19 cases were collected from the Shijiazhuang Fifth Hospital. The consensus sequence of 2019 novel Coronavirus(2019‑nCoV) was obtained through multiplex polymerase chain reaction‑based sequencing. The sequences of 170 COVID‑19 cases were analyzed by the PANGOLIN, and the data were statistically analyzed by T‑test. Results Among the 404 COVID‑19 samples, a total of 356 samples obtained high quality genome sequences (>95%, 100×sequencing depth). The whole genome sequences of 170 COVID‑19 cases were obtained by eliminating repeated samples. All 170 sequences were recognized as lineage B1.1 using PANGOLIN. The number of single nucleotide polymorphism arrange from 18-22 and most of the single nucleotide polymorphism were synonymous variants. All of 170 genomes could be classified into 48 sub‑groups and most of the genomes were classified into 2 sub‑groups (66 and 31, respectively). Conclusions All cases in this study are likely originated from one imported case. The viruses have spread in the community for a long time and have mutated during the community transmission.
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Background COVID-19 imposed extreme constraints on Canadian long-term care (LTC) homes, leading to intense isolation for residents, restricted family visits, and staff shortages. Consequently, these challenges negatively impacted the mental and physical health of residents, family, and interdisciplinary workforce in LTC homes. Objectives 1. To describe how two LTC homes addressed promising practices - Presence of family, People in the workforce, and Future COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 care with implementation science. 2. To understand the enablers, barriers and outcomes to the implementation of an innovative re-engineered intervention - P.I.E.C.E.S.™ (PIECES), designed to include families virtually for team-based resident care planning, and empower Registered Practical Nurses (RPNs) to build resilience and wellbeing. Methods An interdisciplinary team (residents and family, nurses, and academic researchers), guided by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research, employed a mixedmethod design to investigate implementation processes, determinants, and outcomes. Interviews with residents/families and staff focus groups provided insight into enablers and challenges. Pre- and post-intervention results of the Connor Davidson Resilience Scale, Resilience at Work, and Assessment of Interprofessional Team Collaboration Scale informed understandings of personal, professional and organizational resilience outcomes. Results Findings highlighted how implementation of virtual PIECES helped sustain enhanced person-centered care through more comprehensive, collaborative, efficient and effective teams, leading to better outcomes for residents. Moreover, results suggested improved resilience, wellbeing, and communication between LTC home staff and family. New learnings improved preparedness for future outbreaks. Providing a plan for adapting, embedding, and sustaining the intervention based on implementation science will accelerate the spread of highquality actionable research evidence. Conclusions This is the first study to explore implementation processes of a virtually delivered PIECES intervention with meaningful engagement of multiple stakeholders (residents, family, RPNs). Findings provide evidence supporting important healthcare improvements, future spread of virtual interventions, and practice and policy changes for the LTC home sector.